May 19th Primaries, Part 1: Impact of Redistricting

(Part 1 of an 8-part series on the May 19th party primaries.)

Polls will open at 7:00am and close at 7:00 pm for Party Primary Election Day one week from today in Alabama. State officials say the primaries will be conducted as normal but the lead up to the election day has been anything but normal.

Overshadowing the political commercials, billboard ads and yard signs this year has been the fight over redistricting in Alabama. The chaos began with a U.S. Supreme Court decision in a Louisiana redistricting case that declared race cannot be used as a deciding factor in drawing district lines. Alabama officials immediately filed an emergency appeal, asking the federal courts to vacate an injunction that kept the state from redistricting before 2030. That was rejected by the lower court, which claimed they do not have jurisdiction

That placed a final decision into the hands of the high court whose conservative majority had already indicated a willingness to help out states bent on redistricting. The expected ruling came down yesterday in Alabama's favor. That set in motion changes that could do away with one or more congressional districts drawn to give Alabama two majority-minority districts.

So how does the ruling impact next week's primaries? "It will trigger a new primary date for our seven congressional districts," Attorney General Steve Marshall explained to media. "We expect the governor, based on the authority that she was given in the special session last week, to be able to establish those dates soon and then it gives our legislature the opportunity to decide whether or not there's sufficient time to be able to draw new lines."

Marshall says the primaries next week will not change for the majority of the races. He does believe a great deal of attention will be paid specifically to what's going to happen to the seven congressional districts. "I think whether votes have been cast or not, the governor has the ability to reset that date," Marshall added. " And I do believe we will see a staggard primary. One for a majority of our races around the state and a separate one for at least our congressional districts and also possibly two congressional districts."

If Marshall's scenario plays out, it will most likely mean those who have already cast absentee ballots will need to vote again.  Exact specifics will need to be worked out.

Marshall does not believe the last-minute gerrymandering of districts will have a negative impact on minority voters, pointing out the state has had record numbers of minority votes cast in recent elections.

What is uncertain about next week is the voter turnout. Traditionally its fairly low. The overall turnout rate of eligible voters in Alabama in the 2022 midterm general election party primaries was just 23.4% and only 13% for the runoffs. The general election that year produced votes from only 37.3% of those registered.

Democrats and voting rights groups see redistricting as an attempt to disenfranchise minority voters. They are attempting to organize and motivate their base to turnout and vote next week.

"Beyond the courts, we know what has to be done," vows Rep. Figures. "We will organize, we will register, and we will turnout people in record numbers at the polls.”

If they are successful, it could well impact not only congressional races but local races as well.

(This is the first instalment of daily coverage of next Tuesday's Primaries. Tomorrow we will look at the referendums on next week's ballots.)