This week our coverage area will stay dry with seasonal temperatures. Generally, we are looking at sunny to mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid-50s (some areas upper 50s) and lows in the low to mid-30s.

Last year I reported information from the Farmers’ Almanac predicting a “frosty flip-flop winter” for the United States. It zoned in on a “quite chilly, mixed bag of precipitation” for the southern states for our winter outlook. Of course, you must use all information with caution.

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Forecasting Snow

In my experience, snow is tricky to forecast and a complicated process. James Spann, ABC 33/40, and Townsquare Media Tuscaloosa Chief Meteorologist reminds us that there is “no skill in a snow forecast for Alabama 2 weeks advance, and sometimes 2 days in advance.”

Rumors of Snow

Spann further addresses the snow rumors with insight that a “disturbance will bring rain to the state, most likely Saturday night and Sunday morning. You will see deterministic model output from the American global model (the GFS) all over social media this morning, showing a "snowstorm" for North Alabama.

What You Won't See On Social Media

The European global model is a reliable source of information “which shows mostly a cold rain with only a few snowflakes. Forget deterministic output... use the ensemble approach for the best results on a system five days out. Multiple simulations are run, each with a slight variation of its initial conditions and with slightly perturbed weather models.. they produce a range of possible weather outcomes,” said Spann.


Spann notes that “for now, ensemble probabilistic outlooks show only a low chance of any accumulating snow for North Alabama. Thermal fields/forecast soundings are rather marginal for any really meaningful snow, for now. Our forecast will call mostly for rain Saturday night and Sunday morning, with the potential for a few snowflakes on the backside of the departing system. Could this change? Of course.”

As always, we will keep you updated on any potential weather scenarios.

(Source) Click here to follow the Facebook Page for James Spann. Click here for more information from the Farmers’ Almanac.

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